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Some Statistical Analysis on Attendance
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dyniol53 View Drop Down
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Points: 1838 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dyniol53 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 March 2019 at 9:32pm
Ha not far off at all, however that hasn't taken into account ECC drop offs! 

(Unless that 25% decrease just in Pro14 wins?) 

So the basic inputs for increasing attendance are...

5339 - "base rate" fans attend regardless of other variables
5499 - More fans attend a game if it is against the Ospreys
1521 - Bank holiday increase (compared to Saturday night kick off)
1151 - More fans attend a European Champions Cup fixture
1122 - Extra fans per game due to winning the league in the previous season
147 - Extra fans per Welsh international playing
22 - Extra fans For every 1 percent increase in home wins in the current season

So for surefire max attendance would ideally be a ECC game against the Ospreys on a bank holiday with all our Welsh internationals playing having won most of our games that season and had been champs the season previous!
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Rob o'r Bont View Drop Down
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Originally posted by supertaf supertaf wrote:

Hang on though, this is where stats tell the tale that the writer wants. The reason why the Ospreys game was less was the KO day/time. It's not comparable and that may also apply to other games. Cant argue crowds are down but sometimes its for a good reason sadly.
Yes, good points.

I would add that the Premiership Sports deal means that fans can watch every game (of every region) from the comfort of their own sofa.  Some may calculate that it's better value for money in abandoning live games and spending their money on Prem Sport subscription.
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Originally posted by Rob o'r Bont Rob o'r Bont wrote:

Originally posted by supertaf supertaf wrote:

Hang on though, this is where stats tell the tale that the writer wants. The reason why the Ospreys game was less was the KO day/time. It's not comparable and that may also apply to other games. Cant argue crowds are down but sometimes its for a good reason sadly.
Yes, good points.

I would add that the Premiership Sports deal means that fans can watch every game (of every region) from the comfort of their own sofa.  Some may calculate that it's better value for money in abandoning live games and spending their money on Prem Sport subscription.

Agree, maybe it's backfired as I initially thought it would drive more fans to home games. That said, if they keep using their only HD channel for football instead, there will be a riot soon.
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Rich (Bris) View Drop Down
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Most of our home games were in one TV channel or another last season anyway weren't they?
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I think it has been a helpful demonstration that moving all your matches behind a paywall does not drive a lot of extra attendance.
Suggests that if you want to make ST holders out of armchair fans there is more to it than taking the matches off the TV.
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roy munster View Drop Down
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20 years ago 2 men and his dog went to watch darts....now thanks to sky....darts sells out all across europe in front of packed crowds from 5000 to 10000 week in week out....how? well sky seem to know how...the promotion the packaging the branding the razzmatazz...we just need to hustle more....people hustle to get new customers all the time....we seem a trifle complacent in this area
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supertaf View Drop Down
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Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

20 years ago 2 men and his dog went to watch darts....now thanks to sky....darts sells out all across europe in front of packed crowds from 5000 to 10000 week in week out....how? well sky seem to know how...the promotion the packaging the branding the razzmatazz...we just need to hustle more....people hustle to get new customers all the time....we seem a trifle complacent in this area
Correct and yet people lambast Sky all the time for their charges but without them, much of our professional sport wouldn't exist.
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dyniol53 View Drop Down
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Originally posted by roy munster roy munster wrote:

20 years ago 2 men and his dog went to watch darts....now thanks to sky....darts sells out all across europe in front of packed crowds from 5000 to 10000 week in week out....how? well sky seem to know how...the promotion the packaging the branding the razzmatazz...we just need to hustle more....people hustle to get new customers all the time....we seem a trifle complacent in this area

Yes it's about creating a great experience. Complacent is probably the correct word too.

Handing out some flags and piping in music through the speakers is "something everyone does" but Scarlets should or could be thinking about how they can make the Parc a unique atmosphere.

(Doesn't have to be like the darts obviously)
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roy munster View Drop Down
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and free bus trips
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Pro14 - Opposition - Attendance - Last Year - Difference
8th Sept 2018  - Leinster   - 7,258 - 9,108 - -1,850
15th Sept 2018 - Benneton - 7,180 - 8,007 - -827
29th Sept 2018 - Southern K. - 7,529 - 9,108 - -1,849
6th Oct 2018  - Ospreys - 12,012 - 14,509 - -2,497
23rd Nov 2018 - Ulster - 7,788 - 6,941 - +847
29th Dec 2018 - Cardiff Blues - 10,622 - 9,003 - +1,619
5th Jan 2019 - Dragons - 8,167 - 9,347 - -1,180
24th Feb 2019 - Cheetahs - 7,200 - 7,105 (QF) - +95 
2nd Mar 2019 - Munster - 8,032 - 7,693 (Con) - +339
6th Apr 2019 - Edinburgh - 8,733 - 8,088 - +645
13th Apr 2019 - Zebre - 8,356 - 10,076 (Gla) - -1,720 


Edited by dyniol53 - 19 April 2019 at 10:38am
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dyniol53 View Drop Down
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ECC - Opposition - Attendance - Last Year - Difference
13th Oct 2018 - Racing 92 - 8,064 - 11,479 (Bath) - -3,415
7th Dec 2018 - Ulster - 7,421 - 6,856 (BEN) - +565
12th Jan 2019 - Leicester - 8,087 - 14,476 (TLN) - -6,389

QF
30th Mar 2019  - N/A - 0 - 15,373 (La R) - -15,373
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dyniol53 View Drop Down
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Pro14
Attendance this season
Total:  92,877
Average: 8,443

Last season
Total:  98,985
Average: 8,891

Net (this year - last)
Total:  -6,108
Average: -555

(Corrected from previous edit, as I had thought Zebre was an extra home game but I'd missed out Glasgow home from previous season)


Edited by dyniol53 - 19 April 2019 at 10:41am
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dyniol53 View Drop Down
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ECC
Attendance this season
Total:  23,572
Average: 7,857

Last season
Total:  48,184
Average: 12,046

Net (this year - last)
Total:  -24,612
Average: -4,189 
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Originally posted by dyniol53 dyniol53 wrote:

Pro14
Attendance this season
Total:  92,877
Average: 8,443

Last season
Total:  88,909
Average: 8,891

Net (this year - last)
Total:  3,968
Average: -448 

(Total rises because Zebre was extra home game, but average per game down marginally)
Surely it was the same amount of home games because we played Cheetahs home in P14 QF?
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dyniol53 View Drop Down
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Season
Attendance this season
Total:  116,449
Average: 8,318
% Cap: 56%

Last season
Total:  147,169
Average: 9,811
% Cap: 66%

Net (this year - last)
Total:  -30,720
Average: -1,493 
% Cap: -10%


Edited by dyniol53 - 19 April 2019 at 11:00am
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Wil Chips View Drop Down
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Top stats. Thanks.
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