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    Posted: 09 January 2018 at 4:20pm
The West Walians sit third in Pool 5 on 12 points, just a point behind Bath and Toulon, and if they win both of their remaining matches - at The Rec on Friday night and then Toulon in Llanelli the following Saturday - that should be enough for the defending PRO14 champions to top the pool.

Will one win be enough?

Defeat in the 'rag doll' match this weekend wouldn’t be the end for the Scarlets, but they would be clinging on by their fingernails.


As long as they don’t leave The Rec empty handed they can still overhaul Toulon if they beat the French side on the final weekend.

But they would have to beat them with a try bonus point at Parc y Scarlets and also stop the French side picking up any sort of bonus to finish above the three-time winners and snatch second in the pool.

Toulon are on 13 points already and you would expect them to reach at least 18 with winless Benetton the visitors to the Stade Mayol this weekend.

That would leave the Scarlets needing a minimum of six points from their two remaining matches to give themselves a chance of overhauling the French giants.

Similarly, a 5-0 match points win over Bath and a losing bonus in defeat to Toulon, would see the Welsh side finish above their English rivals — even if Bath hammer Benetton in Italy on the final weekend — by virtue of match points between the two sides
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote SA14 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 January 2018 at 4:22pm
Easy. If we beat Bath, Toulon will be the most important game we’ve ever played at Parc y Scarlets IMO.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote John Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 January 2018 at 4:40pm
We have to win both to qualify. If we do, we are almost certainly top of the group ( one of the other two would lave to get a try bonus point and a losing bonus point whilst we failed to get a try bonus point in the match against them- and a try bonus v Benneton}. I think that is all we need to know. If we only win once, we need the three bonus points to have any chance of being a best loser . Its possible to concoct a series of going through with a 3-3 record but it is highly unlikely.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sosban89 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 January 2018 at 4:42pm
I can't see us winning against Bath or Toulon with a bonus point, so for me its 2 wins out of 2 needed. However I feel this team has it in them to do that. Bath is the harder game for me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Exkixu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 January 2018 at 5:11pm
I reckon Clermont and Leinster will top the pool stage with 27 and 24 points or thereabouts.

There is a good chance that with 9 points we might end 3rd-4th overall, meaning a home QF.
8 points and we might see 3-4 teams on 20 points, and then it's anyone's guess.

I can't see us getting through with just the one win as one of the best runners-up.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (4) Thanks(4)   Quote Speedy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 January 2018 at 3:58pm
Realistically, we are in knockout rugby mode.

We have to win both games, we will either come top, or third. Losing one of the last two games will see us in third imo.

Unless anyone actually expects Toulon to slip up at home to Treviso?

Or us to get a 5-0 v Toulon last game up. 

We have to win in Bath. If we do, we are primed to win the group with a win v Toulon.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sosban bach Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 January 2018 at 4:02pm
Or bath to slip up at treviso maybe
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dafen Boy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 January 2018 at 4:32pm
Need a draw or win at Bath to keep hopes alive. 

The Bath home defeat killed us, and we were well beaten in that game.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote PearlJam Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 January 2018 at 5:12pm
Originally posted by Speedy Speedy wrote:

Realistically, we are in knockout rugby mode.


I think that's the best way of assessing it. A win and a win sends us onwards; and I'd take that too, oddly enough.

If you're losing your soul and you know it, then you've still got a soul left to lose.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Wasp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 January 2018 at 5:27pm
Originally posted by Speedy Speedy wrote:

Realistically, we are in knockout rugby mode.

We have to win both games, we will either come top, or third. Losing one of the last two games will see us in third imo.

Unless anyone actually expects Toulon to slip up at home to Treviso?

Or us to get a 5-0 v Toulon last game up. 

We have to win in Bath. If we do, we are primed to win the group with a win v Toulon.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ScarletBear Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 January 2018 at 6:31pm
Originally posted by Sosban bach Sosban bach wrote:

Or bath to slip up at treviso maybe

It is not impossible.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roy munster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 January 2018 at 7:49pm
Weve got to win 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Iwlew Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 January 2018 at 12:06am
Need two wins, as an incredibly high chance both Bath and Toulon will come away with wins, probably bonus point wins, against Treviso. So all down to us.

Edited by Iwlew - 11 January 2018 at 12:08am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote s.pimpernel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 January 2018 at 12:12am
Originally posted by Iwlew Iwlew wrote:

Need two wins, as an incredibly high chance both Bath and Toulon will come away with wins, probably bonus point wins, against Treviso. So all down to us.

Spot on. And as Speedy says, we`re now in knock out mode
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Matthew Cardey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 January 2018 at 12:26am
Originally posted by Speedy Speedy wrote:

Realistically, we are in knockout rugby mode.

We have to win both games, we will either come top, or third. Losing one of the last two games will see us in third imo.

Unless anyone actually expects Toulon to slip up at home to Treviso?

Or us to get a 5-0 v Toulon last game up. 

We have to win in Bath. If we do, we are primed to win the group with a win v Toulon.

A 5-0 at home to toulon is not as unrealistic as one would think.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RedZep Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 January 2018 at 1:47pm
Am I right in thinking, very unlikely I know, that it's possible for all 3 x teams to finish on 20 points?
 
Scarlets - 2 x wins, no bonus points.
Toulon - WBP v Treviso, 2 x LBP v Scarlets.
Bath - 2 x LBP v Scarlets, WBP v Treviso.
 
WTF would happen then?
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