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SA14
Moderator Group Wwwww mince Joined: 15 August 2004 Location: Pemberton Status: Offline Points: 23830 |
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Posted: 09 January 2018 at 4:20pm |
The West Walians sit third in Pool 5 on 12 points, just a point behind Bath and Toulon, and if they win both of their remaining matches - at The Rec on Friday night and then Toulon in Llanelli the following Saturday - that should be enough for the defending PRO14 champions to top the pool.
Will one win be enough? Defeat in the 'rag doll' match this weekend wouldn’t be the end for the Scarlets, but they would be clinging on by their fingernails. As long as they don’t leave The Rec empty handed they can still overhaul Toulon if they beat the French side on the final weekend. But they would have to beat them with a try bonus point at Parc y Scarlets and also stop the French side picking up any sort of bonus to finish above the three-time winners and snatch second in the pool. Toulon are on 13 points already and you would expect them to reach at least 18 with winless Benetton the visitors to the Stade Mayol this weekend. That would leave the Scarlets needing a minimum of six points from their two remaining matches to give themselves a chance of overhauling the French giants. Similarly, a 5-0 match points win over Bath and a losing bonus in defeat to Toulon, would see the Welsh side finish above their English rivals — even if Bath hammer Benetton in Italy on the final weekend — by virtue of match points between the two sides |
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SA14
Moderator Group Wwwww mince Joined: 15 August 2004 Location: Pemberton Status: Offline Points: 23830 |
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Easy. If we beat Bath, Toulon will be the most important game we’ve ever played at Parc y Scarlets IMO.
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John
Veteran Joined: 15 August 2004 Status: Offline Points: 4995 |
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We have to win both to qualify. If we do, we are almost certainly top of the group ( one of the other two would lave to get a try bonus point and a losing bonus point whilst we failed to get a try bonus point in the match against them- and a try bonus v Benneton}. I think that is all we need to know. If we only win once, we need the three bonus points to have any chance of being a best loser . Its possible to concoct a series of going through with a 3-3 record but it is highly unlikely.
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Sosban89
Veteran Joined: 18 October 2014 Status: Offline Points: 2249 |
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I can't see us winning against Bath or Toulon with a bonus point, so for me its 2 wins out of 2 needed. However I feel this team has it in them to do that. Bath is the harder game for me.
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Exkixu
Veteran Joined: 18 October 2008 Status: Offline Points: 3542 |
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I reckon Clermont and Leinster will top the pool stage with 27 and 24 points or thereabouts.
There is a good chance that with 9 points we might end 3rd-4th overall, meaning a home QF.
8 points and we might see 3-4 teams on 20 points, and then it's anyone's guess. I can't see us getting through with just the one win as one of the best runners-up. |
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1 Xavier Rush 2 Rhys Priestland 3 David Lyons Cardiff Blues - Scarlets, 26/09/09
More carries than any of our forwards. Priestland Fan Club Proud Member |
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Speedy
Veteran Joined: 04 September 2004 Location: Gelendzhik Status: Offline Points: 14400 |
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Realistically, we are in knockout rugby mode.
We have to win both games, we will either come top, or third. Losing one of the last two games will see us in third imo. Unless anyone actually expects Toulon to slip up at home to Treviso? Or us to get a 5-0 v Toulon last game up. We have to win in Bath. If we do, we are primed to win the group with a win v Toulon.
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Sosban bach
Veteran Joined: 15 September 2012 Location: Obvious! Status: Offline Points: 5366 |
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Or bath to slip up at treviso maybe
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Dafen Boy
Veteran Joined: 28 March 2016 Status: Offline Points: 2649 |
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Need a draw or win at Bath to keep hopes alive.
The Bath home defeat killed us, and we were well beaten in that game.
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PearlJam
Veteran IT skilled man of detail Joined: 18 April 2005 Location: Llanfrancisco Status: Offline Points: 9543 |
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I think that's the best way of assessing it. A win and a win sends us onwards; and I'd take that too, oddly enough. |
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If you're losing your soul and you know it, then you've still got a soul left to lose.
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Wasp
Veteran Joined: 29 April 2008 Location: Sunny Pembs Status: Offline Points: 17557 |
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Goose pimples!!
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We're still still here, but I wish we were in an Anglo-Welsh
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ScarletBear
Veteran Joined: 25 May 2012 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3400 |
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It is not impossible.
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roy munster
Veteran Joined: 30 August 2010 Status: Online Points: 15683 |
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Weve got to win
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ROYMOND MUNTER MBE (FOR SERVICES TO THE COMBOVER)
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Iwlew
Veteran Joined: 04 April 2013 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 9582 |
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Need two wins, as an incredibly high chance both Bath and Toulon will come away with wins, probably bonus point wins, against Treviso. So all down to us.
Edited by Iwlew - 11 January 2018 at 12:08am |
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And We Were Singing...
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s.pimpernel
Veteran A.F.K.A.P. Joined: 17 August 2004 Status: Offline Points: 13847 |
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Spot on. And as Speedy says, we`re now in knock out mode
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In Pivac we trust
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Matthew Cardey
Senior Member Joined: 27 February 2016 Status: Offline Points: 839 |
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A 5-0 at home to toulon is not as unrealistic as one would think. |
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RedZep
Veteran Joined: 22 December 2010 Location: Pembs Status: Offline Points: 4442 |
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Am I right in thinking, very unlikely I know, that it's possible for all 3 x teams to finish on 20 points?
Scarlets - 2 x wins, no bonus points. Toulon - WBP v Treviso, 2 x LBP v Scarlets. Bath - 2 x LBP v Scarlets, WBP v Treviso. WTF would happen then?
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'' Know your three R's, son..... Rugby, Rock and Ridin'!! ''
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